Last year’s Deloitte Global Technology, Media, and Telecommunications (TMT) Predictions report called COVID-19 a catalyst for trends in the TMT industry. Now, nearly two years in, its impact is still inescapable—but 2022 will be about far more than recovering from the pandemic.
It’s true that COVID-19 has accelerated many trends, including the increasing adoption of health and wellness technologies, the growth in 5G and other advanced connectivity for both enterprises and households, the lockdown-driven lift in console gaming, churn due to greater competition among streaming video services, and the decline in viewing share among traditional TV broadcasters. But new and shining opportunities are also emerging regardless of the pandemic; for example, technologies like RISC-V, an entirely new kind of chip architecture; quantum computing and its cousins, quantum communication and quantum sensing; addressable TV technology that can help expand television advertising’s reach; and nonfungible tokens (NFTs), which offer new avenues for monetizing sports and other media.
Deloitte Global’s “TMT Predictions 2022” report aims to both reflect the world we now live in and illuminate the world to come. This year’s predictions are as follows:
New and Next
Keeping AI private: Homomorphic encryption and federated learning can safeguard AI data. Homomorphic encryption and federated learning are important privacy-enhancing technologies for safeguarding data used in AI applications. Deloitte Global predicts that their combined market will top $250 million in 2022 and $500 million by 2025; the challenge is to make them more practical.
Quantum computing in 2022: “Newsful,” but how useful? Deloitte Global predicts that quantum computing hardware, software, and services revenue will total less than $500 million in 2022, less than either the quantum communication or quantum-sensing markets. While the future of quantum computing isn’t quite here yet, the potential is so high that companies should start preparing now.
AIs wide shut: AI regulation gets (even more) serious. AI in 2022 is increasingly powerful, but regulators have concerns about AI’s implications for fairness, bias, discrimination, diversity, and privacy. AI in 2022 will face intensifying regulatory scrutiny, with proposals in the works in the European Union, China, the United States, and other regions, and implications that resonate across industries.
From trading cards to digital video: Sports NFTs kick memorabilia into the digital age. The chance for fans to acquire, not just view, licensed digital media of their favorite sports moments will likely cement NFTs’ place in the sports content marketplace. Deloitte Global predicts that NFTs for sports media will generate more than $2 billion in transactions in 2022, double the 2021 volume.
All Chips, All the Time
My kingdom for a chip: The semiconductor shortage extends into 2022. Consumers, industry, and government are clamoring for chips, and the semiconductor industry is scrambling to keep up. Deloitte Global predicts many types of chips will still be in short supply throughout 2022, with some lead times stretching into 2023 and a cumulative economic impact of more than $500 billion.
Upping the ante: Venture capital (VC) investment in chip companies reaches new highs. Deloitte Global predicts that VC firms globally will invest more than $6 billion in semiconductor companies in 2022, down slightly from 2021 but much higher than the $1 billion to $2 billion average over the last two decades. The sure winner? The innovation ecosystem.
RISC-y business: Could open-chip standard RISC-V gain traction against dominant incumbents? RISC-V (pronounced “risk five”) is an open-source instruction set architecture for chip designs that offers lower costs and greater access, although its future in the marketplace is anything but certain. Deloitte Global predicts that the RISC-V market will double in size in 2022 as measured by the number of processing cores, surpassing $500 million in revenues.
Making Connections
Wi-Fi 6: Unsung, underexposed—and indispensable to the future of enterprise connectivity. 5G may get the lion’s share of the publicity, but Wi-Fi 6 devices are quietly outselling 5G devices by a large margin and will likely do so for the next few years at least. Deloitte Global predicts that 2.5 billion Wi-Fi 6 devices will ship in 2022, compared with roughly 1.5 billion 5G devices.
Fixed wireless access (FWA): Gaining ground on wired broadband. FWA may play a key role in making the internet more widely available while offering telcos new revenue, growth, and innovation opportunities. Deloitte Global predicts that the number of FWA connections will grow from about 60 million in 2020 to roughly 88 million in 2022, with 5G FWA representing almost 7% of the total.
Health Care Anywhere
Wearable technology in health care: Getting better all the time. Deloitte Global predicts that sales of consumer health and wellness wearable devices, such as smart watches and medical-grade wearable “smart patches,” will grow to more than 320 million units in 2022. The impact could increase further if doctors trust their utility and people feel their data is secure.
Mental health goes mobile: The mental health app market will keep on growing. Deloitte Global predicts that global spending on mobile mental health applications will reach close to $500 million in 2022, assuming an annual growth rate of 20%—a conservative figure, considering the 32% growth of these apps from 2019 to the same period in 2020.
Green and Diverse
Women in the tech industry: Gaining ground but facing new headwinds. Deloitte Global predicts that large global technology firms, on average, will reach nearly 33% overall female representation in their workforces in 2022, up slightly more than two percentage points from 2019. The pandemic has added new challenges to persistent issues, and tech companies may need to work even harder to improve these numbers in the future.
Making smartphones sustainable: Live long and greener. Deloitte Global predicts that the global base of 4.5 billion smartphones will generate 146 million tons of carbon dioxide or equivalent emissions in 2022. Extending smartphone lifetimes would rely on a thriving trading and refurbishment market and continual software and security updates.
Floatovoltaics enters the renewable energy mix: Floating solar panels are now commercially viable. Asia-Pacific is taking the lead in deploying floating photovoltaic arrays as the technology advances and its economics improve. Deloitte Global predicts that the aggregate installed capacity of floating photovoltaics will reach 5.2 gigawatts peak globally by the end of 2022.
The gender gap in reading: Boy meets book, boy loses book, boy never gets book back. Although global illiteracy affects women more than men, boys and men are—and historically have been—less drawn to reading. Deloitte Global predicts that boys and men in almost every country will continue to spend less time reading books—and read them less frequently than girls and women—in 2022 and beyond.
All About Screens
Addressable TV ads: Targeting for reach. The best use of delivering targeted TV ads to different households may be to extend the reach of major ad campaigns, not to differentiate messages. Deloitte Global predicts that addressable TV advertising will generate $7.5 billion in 2022, a small share of the global $153 billion TV ad market.
Traditional TV wanes: Television is about to dip below half of all video viewing in the United Kingdom. Deloitte Global predicts that 2022 will be the final year that traditional television from broadcasters collectively makes up more than 50% of video viewing on all screens. The share of viewing hours among U.K. consumers, which was 73% in 2017, is projected to fall to 53% in 2022 and then to 49% in 2023, heralding a new era for the video content ecosystem.
As the world churns: The streaming wars go global. Deloitte Global predicts that at least 150 million paid subscriptions to streaming video-on-demand (SVOD) services will be canceled worldwide in 2022, with churn rates of up to 30% per market. In a competitive and maturing SVOD market, customizing business model by market may be the key to success.
The games console: Fitter than ever at 50. There’s no midlife slump for the video games console market. Deloitte Global predicts that consoles will generate $81 billion in 2022, up 10% from 2021, and will be at the center of an expanding ecosystem that continues to innovate in content, experiences, and business models.
—by Ariane Bucaille, global TMT industry leader and partner, Deloitte France; Gillian Crossan, global Technology sector leader and principal, principal Risk & Financial Advisory, Deloitte & Touche LLP; and Kevin Westcott, global TMT sector leader and principal, Deloitte Consulting LLP
Copyright ©2022 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 87990cbe856818d5eddac44c7b1cdeb8
About Deloitte refers to one or more of Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited (“DTTL”), its global network of member firms, and their related entities (collectively, the “Deloitte organization”). DTTL (also referred to as “Deloitte Global”) and each of its member firms and related entities are legally separate and independent entities, which cannot obligate or bind each other in respect of third parties. DTTL and each DTTL member firm and related entity is liable only for its own acts and omissions, and not those of each other. DTTL does not provide services to clients. Please see www.deloitte.com/about to learn more. About this publication This communication contains general information only, and none of Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited (“DTTL”), its global network of member firms or their related entities (collectively, the “Deloitte organization”) is, by means of this communication, rendering professional advice or services. Before making any decision or taking any action that may affect your finances or your business, you should consult a qualified professional adviser. No representations, warranties or undertakings (express or implied) are given as to the accuracy or completeness of the information in this communication, and none of DTTL, its member firms, related entities, employees or agents shall be liable or responsible for any loss or damage whatsoever arising directly or indirectly in connection with any person relying on this communication. DTTL and each of its member firms, and their related entities, are legally separate and independent entities. © 2021. For information, contact Deloitte Global.
https://deloitte.wsj.com/articles/2022-global-technology-media-and-telecommunications-predictions-01640027122
Post a Comment